{"text_format":"2","workbook":"xlsx","n_sheets":4,"sheets":["Summary","Silicon","ThinFilm","CPV"],"not_rendered":{"charts":4,"images":0,"macros":0,"external_links":0,"defined_names":0,"comments":3,"pivot_tables":0},"unopened":[],"bounds":{"document_bytes":16777216,"sheet_cells":100000,"run_cost":"one","rows_first":2000,"rows_last":500,"rows_between":2000,"halvings":0,"cell_chars":16384,"cell_head_chars":4096},"cells_cut":0,"cells_raw":0,"read":"whole","date_system":"1900"}

{"sheet":"Summary","index":0,"n_rows":27,"n_cols":13,"rows_kept":27,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
[null,"In this Funding Opportunity, SunShot is piloting a methodology for estimating reductions in LCOE that may result from each project proposal, if the milestones are met and the technology was scaled-up."]
[null,"Applicants are asked to estimate changes to key LCOE cost input parameters resulting from the project, relative to some established technology for which the cost parameters are fairly well-known. "]
[]
[{"$nulls":10},"Underlying philosophy"]
[{"$nulls":10},"Assume that the project meets its milestones and is subsequently scaled-up for high-volume production"]
[{"$nulls":10},"Provide a High estimate for each input value, beyond which would be surprising (90th percentile)"]
[{"$nulls":10},"Provide a Low estimate for each input value, below which would be surprising (10th percentile)"]
[{"$nulls":10},"The key outputs are the probability of a beneficial impact, and the maximum benefit (10% chance to exceed)"]
[]
[{"$nulls":10},"Reference case"]
[{"$nulls":10},"Reference cases are for a fixed-tilt utility-scale system with 2020 balance-of-system costs"]
[{"$nulls":10},"Soft costs are assumed to be power-related (either power-constrained or cost-constrained)"]
[{"$nulls":10},"Reference module cost is $0.50/W for Silicon or $0.45/W for ThinFilm; and $1.25/W for CPV with tracker"]
[]
[{"$nulls":10},"How differences between High and Low estimates are treated"]
[{"$nulls":10},"Each input variable is given a normal distribution centered between the Lo and Hi values"]
[{"$nulls":10},"The standard deviation is adjusted so the Lo and Hi values are at the 10th and 90th percentiles"]
[{"$nulls":10},"Equations that use these input values give output values that are also treated as  normally distributed"]
[{"$nulls":11},"The variance of a sum is the sum of the variances (independent variables)"]
[null,"Maximum LCOE reduction is the optimistic threshold of surprise (10% chance to exceed)",{"$nulls":9},"The variance of a product of X*Y is E(X)^2*V(Y) + E(Y)^2*V(X) + V(X)*V(Y)"]
[null,"If maximum LCOE reduction is negative then an LCOE reduction is unlikely",{"$nulls":10},"   where V() is the variance and E() is the mean (expected) value"]
[null,"Proposed projects offering both high value and low risk lie in the upper-right",{"$nulls":9},"The variance of Y/X is obtained as the variance of the product of Y * (1/X)"]
[{"$nulls":10},"The mean and standard deviation of the output value determine its 10th and 90th percentiles"]
[null,"Explanation of the Three Example Tabs"]
[null,"Silicon:","This tab has a reference case corresponing to p-PERC mono Si in a fixed-tilt utility-scale system. The hypothetical proposal is for a novel n-type cell structure."]
[null,"ThinFilm:","This tab has a reference case corresponing to double-glass thin-film module in a fixed-tilt utility-scale system. The hypothetical proposal is to make the module bifacial."]
[null,"CPV:","This tab has a reference case corresponing to a III-V MJ high-concentration module in a dual-axis tracking system. The hypothetical proposal is a lens with better transmittance."]

{"sheet":"Silicon","index":1,"n_rows":40,"n_cols":19,"rows_kept":40,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[[0,3,0,5],[1,3,1,5]]}
[null,null,"Title:","Novel n-type cell",{"$nulls":4},"Lo (10th percentile) values"]
[null,null,"Reference:","p-PERC mono Si",{"$nulls":4},"Hi (90th percentile) values"]
[null,"$/m2","$/W","W/m2","$/Wsys","%W/yr","%$/yr"]
[null,166,0.32,180,{"$f":"B4/D4+C4","v":1.2422222222222223},-5.0000000000000001E-3,7.0000000000000007E-2]
[null,"Estimate $/m2 area-cost impact relative to reference"]
[null,null,null,"$/m2","$/m2","Comments"]
[null,null,"Module cost reduction:",-14,-12,"n-type wafers+3 steps, and maybe +3% yield loss"]
[null,null,"Hardware BOS cost reduction:",0,0,"No change expected"]
[null,null," Non-hardware BOS cost reduction:",0,0,"No change expected"]
[null,null,"Area-related cost ($/m2):",{"$f":"$B$4-D7-D8-D9","v":180},{"$f":"$B$4-E7-E8-E9","v":178},{"$nulls":10},"CTM Eff Mult:",0.9]
[null,"Expect 1 -3 $/m2 for each additional process step + additional materials",{"$nulls":13},{"$f":"-Q31-3*(Q31-P31)","v":-7.7679666731422931E-2},0.99]
[null,"Estimate $/W power-cost impact relative to reference",{"$nulls":13},{"$f":"-R31","v":-1.9428259598819428E-2},0.9]
[null,null,null,"$/W","$/W","Comments",{"$nulls":9},{"$f":"-Q31","v":1.2299325688024942E-2},0.5]
[null,null,"Power BOS cost reduction ($/W):",0,0,"For this FOA, convert any $/W impact to $/m2",{"$nulls":9},{"$f":"-P31","v":4.2292323161174233E-2},0.1]
[null,null,"Power-related cost ($/W):",{"$f":"$C$4-D14","v":0.32},{"$f":"$C$4-E14","v":0.32},{"$nulls":10},{"$f":"-Q31+3*(R31-Q31)","v":0.10748208154855805},0.01]
[null,"Estimate W/m2 performance relative to reference",{"$nulls":13},0,{"$f":"Q34","v":0.70046380274460429}]
[null,null,null,"W/m2","W/m2","Comments",{"$nulls":9},{"$f":"Q33","v":4.2292323161174233E-2},0.1]
[null,null,"Additional power:",4,18,"Expect 2% higher cell efficiency, but maybe only 0.5%"]
[null,null,"Module power:",{"$f":"$D$4+D18","v":184},{"$f":"$D$4+E18","v":198}]
[null,"Optionally, adjust power to match deliverable champion lab cell efficiency",{"$nulls":13},"Lo","Mid","Hi"]
[null,null,"0.1 cm2:",{"$f":"D$19/$Q$10/1000+0.01+0.03","v":0.24444444444444444},{"$f":"E$19/$Q$10/1000+0.01+0.03","v":0.26},{"$nulls":9},"Power output (W/m2):",{"$f":"D19","v":184},{"$f":"(P21+R21)/2","v":191},{"$f":"E19","v":198}]
[null,null,"1 cm2:",{"$f":"D$19/$Q$10/1000+0.01+0.02","v":0.23444444444444443},{"$f":"E$19/$Q$10/1000+0.01+0.02","v":0.25},{"$nulls":9},"Areal cost ($/m2):",{"$f":"E10","v":178},{"$f":"(P22+R22)/2","v":179},{"$f":"D10","v":180}]
[null,null,"Full wafer:",{"$f":"D$19/$Q$10/1000+0.01","v":0.21444444444444444},{"$f":"E$19/$Q$10/1000+0.01","v":0.23},{"$nulls":9},"Areal component ($/W):",{"$f":"Q23-SQRT((Q22-P22)^2/Q21^2+(1/R21-1/Q21)^2*Q22^2+(Q22-P22)^2*(1/R21-1/Q21)^2)","v":0.90362877709103206},{"$f":"Q22/Q21","v":0.93717277486910999},{"$f":"Q23+SQRT((Q22-R22)^2/Q21^2+(1/P21-1/Q21)^2*Q22^2+(Q22-R22)^2*(1/P21-1/Q21)^2)","v":0.97320900476305061}]
[null,"Match Lo cell eff at least 1% lower than deliverable when not independently validated",{"$nulls":12},"Power cost ($/W):",{"$f":"E15","v":0.32},{"$f":"(P24+R24)/2","v":0.32},{"$f":"D15","v":0.32}]
[null,"Match Lo cell eff at least 1% lower than deliverable if there's no means of interconnection",{"$nulls":12},"Total $/Wsys:",{"$f":"Q25-SQRT((Q23-P23)^2+(Q24-P24)^2)","v":1.2236287770910321},{"$f":"Q23+Q24","v":1.2571727748691099},{"$f":"Q25+SQRT((R23-Q23)^2+(R24-Q24)^2)","v":1.2932090047630505}]
[null,"Match Lo cell eff at least 3% lower than modeled at 0.1 cm2 if not demonstrated",{"$nulls":12},"Degrade relative to reference (%/yr):",{"$f":"(D31-$F$4)","v":0},{"$f":"(P26+R26)/2","v":1E-3},{"$f":"(E31-$F$4)","v":2E-3},"absolute"]
[null,"Match Hi cell eff 1% higher than deliverable efficiency if it's a lot-average value",{"$nulls":12},"Finance relative to reference (%/yr):",{"$f":"D40-$G$4","v":0},{"$f":"(P27+R27)/2","v":0},{"$f":"E40-$G$4","v":0},"absolute"]
[null,"Estimate degradation rate relative to reference",{"$nulls":12},"Adjusted finance risk (%/yr):",{"$f":"Q28-SQRT((Q26-P26)^2+(Q27-P27)^2)","v":6.8000000000000005E-2},{"$f":"$G$4+Q27-Q26","v":6.9000000000000006E-2},{"$f":"Q28+SQRT((R26-Q26)^2+(R27-Q27)^2)","v":7.0000000000000007E-2},"absolute"]
[null,null,null,"%W/yr","%W/yr","Comments",{"$nulls":8},"Annualized cost ($/Wyr):",{"$f":"Q29-SQRT((Q25-P25)^2*Q28^2+(Q28-P28)^2*Q25^2+(Q25-P25)^2*(Q28-P28)^2)","v":8.4110783130333988E-2},{"$f":"Q25*Q28","v":8.67449214659686E-2},{"$f":"Q29+SQRT((Q25-R25)^2*Q28^2+(Q28-R28)^2*Q25^2+(Q25-R25)^2*(Q28-R28)^2)","v":8.9531400169072961E-2}]
[null,null,"Decreased degradation (W%/yr):",0,2E-3,"Expect it's more stable, but maybe not",{"$nulls":8},"Energy yield adjustment(%):",{"$f":"D34","v":0.01},{"$f":"(P30+R30)/2","v":0.01},{"$f":"E34","v":0.01},"relative"]
[null,null,"Degradation rate (W%/yr):",{"$f":"$F$4+D30","v":-5.0000000000000001E-3},{"$f":"$F$4+E30","v":-3.0000000000000001E-3},{"$nulls":9},"LCOE relative to reference(delta-%):",{"$f":"Q31-SQRT((Q29-P29)^2/(1+Q30)^2+(1/(1+Q30)-1/(1+P30))^2*Q29^2+(Q29-P29)^2*(1/(1+Q30)-1/(1+P30))^2)/($E$4*$G$4)","v":-4.2292323161174233E-2},{"$f":"Q29/(1+Q30)/($E$4*$G$4)-1","v":-1.2299325688024942E-2},{"$f":"Q31+SQRT((Q29-R29)^2/(1+Q30)^2+(1/(1+Q30)-1/(1+R30))^2*Q29^2+(Q29-R29)^2*(1/(1+Q30)-1/(1+R30))^2)/($E$4*$G$4)","v":1.9428259598819428E-2}]
[null,"Estimate annual energy yield (kWh/kW) relative to reference"]
[null,null,null,"%","%","Comments",{"$nulls":9},"Upside LCOE benefit (delta-%):",{"$f":"-P31","v":4.2292323161174233E-2},"relative"]
[null,null,"Yield improvement (%):",0.01,0.01,"Improved temp coeff",{"$nulls":9},"Probability of any LCOE benefit:",{"$f":"_xlfn.NORM.DIST(0,Q31,0.78*(Q31-P31),TRUE)","v":0.70046380274460429},"absolute"]
[null,"Add 0.2% for each week reduction of initial non-production time"]
[null,"Expect 1 - 3% for significant increase in Voc or reduction in operating temperature"]
[null,"Estimate finance cost relative to reference"]
[null,null,null,"%$/yr","%$/yr","Comments"]
[null,null,"Finance rate reduction ($%/yr):",0,0,"Not addressed in this FOA"]
[null,null,"Finance cost $%/yr:",{"$f":"$G$4-D39","v":7.0000000000000007E-2},{"$f":"$G$4-E39","v":7.0000000000000007E-2}]

{"sheet":"ThinFilm","index":2,"n_rows":40,"n_cols":19,"rows_kept":40,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[[0,3,0,5],[1,3,1,5]]}
[null,null,"Title:","Bifacial Thin Film",{"$nulls":4},"Lo (10th percentile) values"]
[null,null,"Reference:","Thin film double-glass",{"$nulls":4},"Hi (90th percentile) values"]
[null,"$/m2","$/W","W/m2","$/Wsys","%W/yr","%$/yr"]
[null,150,0.32,165,{"$f":"B4/D4+C4","v":1.229090909090909},-5.0000000000000001E-3,7.0000000000000007E-2]
[null,"Estimate $/m2 area-cost impact relative to reference"]
[null,null,null,"$/m2","$/m2","Comments"]
[null,null,"Module cost reduction:",-6,-4,"Offset J-box, thicker rear TCO, and maybe +3% yield loss"]
[null,null,"Hardware BOS cost reduction:",-5,0,"No change expected, but may need special mounting"]
[null,null," Non-hardware BOS cost reduction:",0,0,"No change expected"]
[null,null,"Area-related cost ($/m2):",{"$f":"$B$4-D7-D8-D9","v":161},{"$f":"$B$4-E7-E8-E9","v":154},{"$nulls":10},"CTM Eff Mult:",0.9]
[null,"Expect 1 -3 $/m2 for each additional process step + additional materials",{"$nulls":13},{"$f":"-Q31-3*(Q31-P31)","v":-0.17306846819517202},0.99]
[null,"Estimate $/W power-cost impact relative to reference",{"$nulls":13},{"$f":"-R31","v":-5.7193357513498834E-2},0.9]
[null,null,null,"$/W","$/W","Comments",{"$nulls":9},{"$f":"-Q31","v":-3.7564879405282969E-3},0.5]
[null,null,"Power BOS cost reduction ($/W):",0,0,"For this FOA, convert any $/W impact to $/m2",{"$nulls":9},{"$f":"-P31","v":5.2680838811019613E-2},0.1]
[null,null,"Power-related cost ($/W):",{"$f":"$C$4-D14","v":0.32},{"$f":"$C$4-E14","v":0.32},{"$nulls":10},{"$f":"-Q31+3*(R31-Q31)","v":0.15655412077838332},0.01]
[null,"Estimate W/m2 performance relative to reference",{"$nulls":13},0,{"$f":"Q34","v":0.46599802017751407}]
[null,null,null,"W/m2","W/m2","Comments",{"$nulls":9},{"$f":"Q33","v":5.2680838811019613E-2},0.1]
[null,null,"Additional power:",-9,0,"No change expected, but may lose 1% in efficiency"]
[null,null,"Module power:",{"$f":"$D$4+D18","v":156},{"$f":"$D$4+E18","v":165}]
[null,"Optionally, adjust power to match deliverable champion lab cell efficiency",{"$nulls":13},"Lo","Mid","Hi"]
[null,null,"0.1 cm2:",{"$f":"D$19/$Q$10/1000+0.01+0.03","v":0.21333333333333335},{"$f":"E$19/$Q$10/1000+0.01+0.03","v":0.22333333333333336},{"$nulls":9},"Power output (W/m2):",{"$f":"D19","v":156},{"$f":"(P21+R21)/2","v":160.5},{"$f":"E19","v":165}]
[null,null,"1 cm2:",{"$f":"D$19/$Q$10/1000+0.01+0.02","v":0.20333333333333334},{"$f":"E$19/$Q$10/1000+0.01+0.02","v":0.21333333333333335},{"$nulls":9},"Areal cost ($/m2):",{"$f":"E10","v":154},{"$f":"(P22+R22)/2","v":157.5},{"$f":"D10","v":161}]
[null,null,"Full wafer:",{"$f":"D$19/$Q$10/1000+0.01","v":0.18333333333333335},{"$f":"E$19/$Q$10/1000+0.01","v":0.19333333333333336},{"$nulls":9},"Areal component ($/W):",{"$f":"Q23-SQRT((Q22-P22)^2/Q21^2+(1/R21-1/Q21)^2*Q22^2+(Q22-P22)^2*(1/R21-1/Q21)^2)","v":0.94678090885152022},{"$f":"Q22/Q21","v":0.98130841121495327},{"$f":"Q23+SQRT((Q22-R22)^2/Q21^2+(1/P21-1/Q21)^2*Q22^2+(Q22-R22)^2*(1/P21-1/Q21)^2)","v":1.0170466162962541}]
[null,"Match Lo cell eff at least 1% lower than deliverable when not independently validated",{"$nulls":12},"Power cost ($/W):",{"$f":"E15","v":0.32},{"$f":"(P24+R24)/2","v":0.32},{"$f":"D15","v":0.32}]
[null,"Match Lo cell eff at least 1% lower than deliverable if there's no means of interconnection",{"$nulls":12},"Total $/Wsys:",{"$f":"Q25-SQRT((Q23-P23)^2+(Q24-P24)^2)","v":1.2667809088515203},{"$f":"Q23+Q24","v":1.3013084112149533},{"$f":"Q25+SQRT((R23-Q23)^2+(R24-Q24)^2)","v":1.3370466162962542}]
[null,"Match Lo cell eff at least 3% lower than modeled at 0.1 cm2 if not demonstrated",{"$nulls":12},"Degrade relative to reference (%/yr):",{"$f":"(D31-$F$4)","v":-4.000000000000001E-3},{"$f":"(P26+R26)/2","v":-3.0000000000000005E-3},{"$f":"(E31-$F$4)","v":-2E-3},"absolute"]
[null,"Match Hi cell eff 1% higher than deliverable efficiency if it's a lot-average value",{"$nulls":12},"Finance relative to reference (%/yr):",{"$f":"D40-$G$4","v":0},{"$f":"(P27+R27)/2","v":0},{"$f":"E40-$G$4","v":0},"absolute"]
[null,"Estimate degradation rate relative to reference",{"$nulls":12},"Adjusted finance risk (%/yr):",{"$f":"Q28-SQRT((Q26-P26)^2+(Q27-P27)^2)","v":7.2000000000000008E-2},{"$f":"$G$4+Q27-Q26","v":7.3000000000000009E-2},{"$f":"Q28+SQRT((R26-Q26)^2+(R27-Q27)^2)","v":7.400000000000001E-2},"absolute"]
[null,null,null,"%W/yr","%W/yr","Comments",{"$nulls":8},"Annualized cost ($/Wyr):",{"$f":"Q29-SQRT((Q25-P25)^2*Q28^2+(Q28-P28)^2*Q25^2+(Q25-P25)^2*(Q28-P28)^2)","v":9.215869279471503E-2},{"$f":"Q25*Q28","v":9.4995514018691607E-2},{"$f":"Q29+SQRT((Q25-R25)^2*Q28^2+(Q28-R28)^2*Q25^2+(Q25-R25)^2*(Q28-R28)^2)","v":9.7911158452271829E-2}]
[null,null,"Decreased degradation (W%/yr):",-4.0000000000000001E-3,-2E-3,"Early tests suggest slightly faster degradation",{"$nulls":8},"Energy yield adjustment(%):",{"$f":"D34","v":0.05},{"$f":"(P30+R30)/2","v":0.1},{"$f":"E34","v":0.15},"relative"]
[null,null,"Degradation rate (W%/yr):",{"$f":"$F$4+D30","v":-9.0000000000000011E-3},{"$f":"$F$4+E30","v":-7.0000000000000001E-3},{"$nulls":9},"LCOE relative to reference(delta-%):",{"$f":"Q31-SQRT((Q29-P29)^2/(1+Q30)^2+(1/(1+Q30)-1/(1+P30))^2*Q29^2+(Q29-P29)^2*(1/(1+Q30)-1/(1+P30))^2)/($E$4*$G$4)","v":-5.2680838811019613E-2},{"$f":"Q29/(1+Q30)/($E$4*$G$4)-1","v":3.7564879405282969E-3},{"$f":"Q31+SQRT((Q29-R29)^2/(1+Q30)^2+(1/(1+Q30)-1/(1+R30))^2*Q29^2+(Q29-R29)^2*(1/(1+Q30)-1/(1+R30))^2)/($E$4*$G$4)","v":5.7193357513498834E-2}]
[null,"Estimate annual energy yield (kWh/kW) relative to reference"]
[null,null,null,"%","%","Comments",{"$nulls":9},"Upside LCOE benefit (delta-%):",{"$f":"-P31","v":5.2680838811019613E-2},"relative"]
[null,null,"Yield improvement (%):",0.05,0.15,"Expect 15% bifacial gain, but maybe only 5%",{"$nulls":9},"Probability of any LCOE benefit:",{"$f":"_xlfn.NORM.DIST(0,Q31,0.78*(Q31-P31),TRUE)","v":0.46599802017751407},"absolute"]
[null,"Add 0.2% for each week reduction of initial non-production time"]
[null,"Expect 1 - 3% for significant increase in Voc or reduction in operating temperature"]
[null,"Estimate finance cost relative to reference"]
[null,null,null,"%$/yr","%$/yr","Comments"]
[null,null,"Finance rate reduction ($%/yr):",0,0,"Not addressed in this FOA"]
[null,null,"Finance cost $%/yr:",{"$f":"$G$4-D39","v":7.0000000000000007E-2},{"$f":"$G$4-E39","v":7.0000000000000007E-2}]

{"sheet":"CPV","index":3,"n_rows":40,"n_cols":19,"rows_kept":40,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[[0,3,0,5],[1,3,1,5]]}
[null,null,"Title:","Improved fresnel lens",{"$nulls":4},"Lo (10th percentile) values"]
[null,null,"Reference:","III-V MJ CPV",{"$nulls":4},"Hi (90th percentile) values"]
[null,"$/m2","$/W","W/m2","$/Wsys","%W/yr","%$/yr"]
[null,450,0.32,360,{"$f":"B4/D4+C4","v":1.57},-0.01,0.1]
[null,"Estimate $/m2 area-cost impact relative to reference"]
[null,null,null,"$/m2","$/m2","Comments"]
[null,null,"Module cost reduction:",-25,-5,"Increased lens cost, but could be 5x higher"]
[null,null,"Hardware BOS cost reduction:",0,0,"No change expected"]
[null,null," Non-hardware BOS cost reduction:",0,0,"No change expected"]
[null,null,"Area-related cost ($/m2):",{"$f":"$B$4-D7-D8-D9","v":475},{"$f":"$B$4-E7-E8-E9","v":455},{"$nulls":10},"CTM Eff Mult:",0.9]
[null,"Expect 1 -3 $/m2 for each additional process step + additional materials",{"$nulls":13},{"$f":"-Q31-3*(Q31-P31)","v":-0.12468354162355808},0.99]
[null,"Estimate $/W power-cost impact relative to reference",{"$nulls":13},{"$f":"-R31","v":-4.0400714195735619E-2},0.9]
[null,null,null,"$/W","$/W","Comments",{"$nulls":9},{"$f":"-Q31","v":1.068695763689953E-3},0.5]
[null,null,"Power BOS cost reduction ($/W):",0,0,"For this FOA, convert any $/W impact to $/m2",{"$nulls":9},{"$f":"-P31","v":4.2986108226105962E-2},0.1]
[null,null,"Power-related cost ($/W):",{"$f":"$C$4-D14","v":0.32},{"$f":"$C$4-E14","v":0.32},{"$nulls":10},{"$f":"-Q31+3*(R31-Q31)","v":0.12547692564196666},0.01]
[null,"Estimate W/m2 performance relative to reference",{"$nulls":13},0,{"$f":"Q34","v":0.51303760315830904}]
[null,null,null,"W/m2","W/m2","Comments",{"$nulls":9},{"$f":"Q33","v":4.2986108226105962E-2},0.1]
[null,null,"Additional power:",5,20,"Expect 2% abs higher module eff, but maybe only 0.5%"]
[null,null,"Module power:",{"$f":"$D$4+D18","v":365},{"$f":"$D$4+E18","v":380}]
[null,"Optionally, adjust power to match deliverable champion lab cell efficiency",{"$nulls":13},"Lo","Mid","Hi"]
[null,null,"0.1 cm2:",{"$f":"D$19/$Q$10/1000+0.01+0.03","v":0.44555555555555559},{"$f":"E$19/$Q$10/1000+0.01+0.03","v":0.4622222222222222},{"$nulls":9},"Power output (W/m2):",{"$f":"D19","v":365},{"$f":"(P21+R21)/2","v":372.5},{"$f":"E19","v":380}]
[null,null,"1 cm2:",{"$f":"D$19/$Q$10/1000+0.01+0.02","v":0.43555555555555558},{"$f":"E$19/$Q$10/1000+0.01+0.02","v":0.45222222222222225},{"$nulls":9},"Areal cost ($/m2):",{"$f":"E10","v":455},{"$f":"(P22+R22)/2","v":465},{"$f":"D10","v":475}]
[null,null,"Full wafer:",{"$f":"D$19/$Q$10/1000+0.01","v":0.41555555555555557},{"$f":"E$19/$Q$10/1000+0.01","v":0.43222222222222223},{"$nulls":9},"Areal component ($/W):",{"$f":"Q23-SQRT((Q22-P22)^2/Q21^2+(1/R21-1/Q21)^2*Q22^2+(Q22-P22)^2*(1/R21-1/Q21)^2)","v":1.211880455290939},{"$f":"Q22/Q21","v":1.2483221476510067},{"$f":"Q23+SQRT((Q22-R22)^2/Q21^2+(1/P21-1/Q21)^2*Q22^2+(Q22-R22)^2*(1/P21-1/Q21)^2)","v":1.2854562073689575}]
[null,"Match Lo cell eff at least 1% lower than deliverable when not independently validated",{"$nulls":12},"Power cost ($/W):",{"$f":"E15","v":0.32},{"$f":"(P24+R24)/2","v":0.32},{"$f":"D15","v":0.32}]
[null,"Match Lo cell eff at least 1% lower than deliverable if there's no means of interconnection",{"$nulls":12},"Total $/Wsys:",{"$f":"Q25-SQRT((Q23-P23)^2+(Q24-P24)^2)","v":1.5318804552909391},{"$f":"Q23+Q24","v":1.5683221476510067},{"$f":"Q25+SQRT((R23-Q23)^2+(R24-Q24)^2)","v":1.6054562073689576}]
[null,"Match Lo cell eff at least 3% lower than modeled at 0.1 cm2 if not demonstrated",{"$nulls":12},"Degrade relative to reference (%/yr):",{"$f":"(D31-$F$4)","v":-4.9999999999999992E-3},{"$f":"(P26+R26)/2","v":-2.4999999999999996E-3},{"$f":"(E31-$F$4)","v":0},"absolute"]
[null,"Match Hi cell eff 1% higher than deliverable efficiency if it's a lot-average value",{"$nulls":12},"Finance relative to reference (%/yr):",{"$f":"D40-$G$4","v":0},{"$f":"(P27+R27)/2","v":0},{"$f":"E40-$G$4","v":0},"absolute"]
[null,"Estimate degradation rate relative to reference",{"$nulls":12},"Adjusted finance risk (%/yr):",{"$f":"Q28-SQRT((Q26-P26)^2+(Q27-P27)^2)","v":0.1},{"$f":"$G$4+Q27-Q26","v":0.10250000000000001},{"$f":"Q28+SQRT((R26-Q26)^2+(R27-Q27)^2)","v":0.10500000000000001},"absolute"]
[null,null,null,"%W/yr","%W/yr","Comments",{"$nulls":8},"Annualized cost ($/Wyr):",{"$f":"Q29-SQRT((Q25-P25)^2*Q28^2+(Q28-P28)^2*Q25^2+(Q25-P25)^2*(Q28-P28)^2)","v":0.15533699921513586},{"$f":"Q25*Q28","v":0.16075302013422821},{"$f":"Q29+SQRT((Q25-R25)^2*Q28^2+(Q28-R28)^2*Q25^2+(Q25-R25)^2*(Q28-R28)^2)","v":0.16621825613822658}]
[null,null,"Decreased degradation (W%/yr):",-5.0000000000000001E-3,0,"No effect expected, but may degrade faster",{"$nulls":8},"Energy yield adjustment(%):",{"$f":"D34","v":0},{"$f":"(P30+R30)/2","v":2.5000000000000001E-2},{"$f":"E34","v":0.05},"relative"]
[null,null,"Degradation rate (W%/yr):",{"$f":"$F$4+D30","v":-1.4999999999999999E-2},{"$f":"$F$4+E30","v":-0.01},{"$nulls":9},"LCOE relative to reference(delta-%):",{"$f":"Q31-SQRT((Q29-P29)^2/(1+Q30)^2+(1/(1+Q30)-1/(1+P30))^2*Q29^2+(Q29-P29)^2*(1/(1+Q30)-1/(1+P30))^2)/($E$4*$G$4)","v":-4.2986108226105962E-2},{"$f":"Q29/(1+Q30)/($E$4*$G$4)-1","v":-1.068695763689953E-3},{"$f":"Q31+SQRT((Q29-R29)^2/(1+Q30)^2+(1/(1+Q30)-1/(1+R30))^2*Q29^2+(Q29-R29)^2*(1/(1+Q30)-1/(1+R30))^2)/($E$4*$G$4)","v":4.0400714195735619E-2}]
[null,"Estimate annual energy yield (kWh/kW) relative to reference"]
[null,null,null,"%","%","Comments",{"$nulls":9},"Upside LCOE benefit (delta-%):",{"$f":"-P31","v":4.2986108226105962E-2},"relative"]
[null,null,"Yield improvement (%):",0,0.05,"Expect reduced soiling, but maybe not",{"$nulls":9},"Probability of any LCOE benefit:",{"$f":"_xlfn.NORM.DIST(0,Q31,0.78*(Q31-P31),TRUE)","v":0.51303760315830904},"absolute"]
[null,"Add 0.2% for each week reduction of initial non-production time"]
[null,"Expect 1 - 3% for significant increase in Voc or reduction in operating temperature"]
[null,"Estimate finance cost relative to reference"]
[null,null,null,"%$/yr","%$/yr","Comments"]
[null,null,"Finance rate reduction ($%/yr):",0,0,"Not addressed in this FOA"]
[null,null,"Finance cost $%/yr:",{"$f":"$G$4-D39","v":0.1},{"$f":"$G$4-E39","v":0.1}]